Once again, the UK takes another step forward in incompetence as it works through the options it wants to take forward to expand capacity in the South East of England.
Three options have been highlighted in the Davis Report in how the government of the day may go forward:
– Build a 3rd Runway North-west of Heathrow at 3,500m in length
– Lengthening an existing runway at Heathrow to 6,000 to allow mixed-mode operations
– Build a 2nd Runway at Gatwick more than 3,000m in length
This runway would be needed before 2030 according to the report.
The interim report goes on to note that
“The capacity challenge is not yet critical, but it will become so if no action is taken soon”
Obviously, Sir Howard Davis (who is leading this commission) hasn’t been to Heathrow on a foggy day to see the congestion and delays stacked up.
Now, before anyone gets too excited, this is an interim report, with the final report due in Summer 2015 – after the next UK elections have been completed, and kicking the issue down the road for another government to worry about.
A fourth option to examine a new airport in the Isle of Grain (or as some have called – Boris Island) in north Kent will be considered by the review.
The quickest loosers in the review are Stansted and Birmingham Airport who will not get any further expansion at this time, although they remain “potential options”for any second new runway by 2050.
There has been political posturing already, with Boris Johnson still set on his island, calling Heathrow expansion a “catastrophe”, the Conservative party (who scrapped the old 3rd runway plans at Heathrow) stating they won’t be building a runway in the current parliamentary period
The full report is at https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/266446/airports-commission-interim-report.pdf
However, I’m going to stick my neck out again… and say if this gets built and passed, I’ll be amazed.
Why? Lets look at the timings again. We’re in December 2013 at the time of publishing. The Commission now has the best part of 1 year and 6 months to complete its report to make “Summer 2015”.
That’s a lot of time. In addition, we have a General Election in the United Kingdom in May 2015 (subject to the current political collation holding together). I discussed this in July
http://economyclassandbeyond.boardingarea.com/2013/07/17/the-reason-we-wont-see-a-decision-regarding-runways-airport-or-anything-in-the-uk/, and my reasons are the same:
- There is a high count of Conservative Parliamentary held seats in the area, putting at risk their jobs.
- The sentimental loss of homes
- The NIMBY attitude that the UK has to ANY infrastructure project.
Expect this to run on. And for those of you expecting a runway by 2030…?
Good luck with that one.
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