Analysis: BMI… Next Steps.

Well now we sort of know what is happening to BMI, it’s time to get to the nitty gritty for what could happen next.

And I’ll preface this with the following: THIS IS PURE CONJECTURE AND SPECULATION based on what’s happening at this moment of time.

What we know:

• BMI is being sold to IAG
• BMI Regional is being sold to a 3rd Party.
• Target Closing date of 30th March 2012 for BMI Mainline
• Air Operators Certificate  to operate till at least that date

Operations:

• BMI to leave Star Alliance: More than Likely. Once the takeover is complete, Star Alliance membership will not be wanted as BA/IB is OneWorld Member.  It wouldn’t make sense for BMI to hang around. I’d expect a smartish exit
• BMI to leave LHR T1: Long Term – Likely. BA fought for so long to have it’s own facility over in LHR T5 (with some overspill into LHR T3), that keeping BMI in T1 would be folly. Although BMI’s aircraft could do well over in LGW…
• Some of the “new” slots IAG is obtaining from BMI to be sold off: Very likely. No doubt, the Competition Commission may insist for the deal to go through,
• Richard Branson to moan: It’s begun. I still maintain my posture when it comes to Virgin Atlantic and Richard Branson. If they wanted, they could had stumped up the cash and brought BMI. But they didn’t. So dear Beardy, there’s no point in whining now. Virgin Atlantic on a “free market”, and it’s Virgin Atlantic’s responsibility to ensure it can compete.  Virgin has at this late point put a bid in, and if it will trump the IAG bid is another matter.

Routes

• Duplicated routes will probably be given to one carrier or the other – Given there is some route overlap, this is a given.
• Expect more route rationalisation along the line – Like any carrier, IAG will work out what works, what doesn’t and what will go down the pan. I’d expect some more route cuts as the new owner reallocates routes as needed.

Diamond Club

• TWO WORDS: REDEEM NOW. Those of you with smaller Diamond Club balances may find it’s time for a quick weekend somewhere. Those of us with larger balances… may find it’s time for a big trip somewhere (or is it just me who thinks Hong Kong for a weekend in Business is just a good idea?)! 
• I’d personally be targeting any redemption up until 30/03/2012 when the takeover should be completed
• For now, it’s business as usual.
• Those of you fighting to BMI Gold/BMI Silver, I would continue as-is. Least of all I’d expect a status match from BA or Lufthansa, or one hell of a massive status match war when airlines work out a bunch of frequent flyers are up for grabs.
  
• Are we migrating to Lufthansa Senator or BA Gold? I’m not sure – both are likely as each other (but on the plus side, we aren’t going to Virgin Atlantic Gold. Bet you’re all pleased about that!).

And finally

• I send my best to the BMI staff who are going through yet another massive upheaval. I wish you all good luck in the future months ahead.

To those readers who aren’t interested in BMI – I’m sorry but coverage is going to remain constant. As I’ve stated before there’s a lot of BMI Gold/Silvers out there thanks to the ease of retaining the Gold/Silver cards, and there is going to be one heck of a lot of change coming up.  I’ll be keeping up all my other news reporting where possible (as well as a trip report I’ve almost finished), but for now… priorities people.

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GhettoIFE.com will continue to monitor the takeover of BMI by… whoever with very beady eyes.