Today, Economy Class and Beyond is in London trying to do two jobs at once… and the one we’re focusing on first is the Airbus Global Markets forecast for the next twenty years.
So today, Airbus predicts the need for over 39,000 new aircraft in the next 20 years.
Into the Numbers
This number covers both passenger and freight aircraft – which is estimated to double from today’s nearly 23,000 to almost 48,000 by 2038 with traffic growing at 4.3% annually. This will also require the recruitment of 550,000 new pilots and 640,000 new technicians.
Airbus predict that at the end of 2038, a global fleet of 47,680 frames, 39,210 are new and 8,470 remain from today.
Playing the green card
With the aviation industry looking to play its part in being more green, Airbus sees the move to more efficient aircraft families (such as the A220, A320neo family, A330neo and the A350) the belive they can head towards carbon-neutral growth targets while connecting more people globally.
It’s all about segmentation.
Airbus are trying to redefine the segmentation of their markets too, into small, medium and large markets. With the aircraft families that exist, that’s a bit difficult to envision. They are splitting this by capacity, range and mission type. Here are some examples that the airframer gives:
- Small – A321
- Medium – A321XLR, A330neo
- Large – A330neo, A350
In these new segments, Airbus predicts the following numbers in the following categories:
- 29,720 Small
- 5,370 Medium
- 4,120 Large
A total of 39,210 new passenger and freighter aircraft. An estimated 25,0000 of these will be used for growth and 14,210 will be used to replace older models with new frames.
Christian Scherer, Airbus Chief Commercial Officer and Head of Airbus International states:
“The 4% annual growth reflects the resilient nature of aviation, weathering short term economic shocks and geo-political disturbances. Economies thrive on air transportation. People and goods want to connect,” .Globally, commercial aviation stimulates GDP growth and supports 65 million livelyhoods, demonstrating the immense benefits our business brings to all societies and global trade.”
A lot to unpack
With the Global Market Forecast today, there will be a lot to unpack and understand – and to dig in deep into these numbers. Some of this is ending up on twitter already, with a further analysis over the next few days
I’ll be going unpacking their presentation and numbers later.
As well as their segmentation…
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